Kamala Harris Gains Ground in Key Battleground States

Kamala Harris gains ground has sustained the momentum from her presidential campaign, either leading or tied with Republican Donald Trump in all seven critical battleground states. Currently, Harris has a 2-point lead among registered voters and is tied with Trump among likely voters—a group increasingly crucial as Election Day approaches. The margin of error for these results stands at 1 percentage point.

Expanding Electoral Prospects

Compared to her predecessor, President Joe Biden, Harris has broadened the potential for an Electoral College victory. She has reintroduced Sun Belt states like Georgia and Nevada into play. Her impact is most evident in North Carolina, where she holds a 2-point lead. No Democrat has won North Carolina since Barack Obama in 2008, and Trump had led by 10 points as recently as April. Harris’ rising popularity in this state has prompted Republicans to spend over $16 million on television ads supporting Trump in the past five weeks.

The closest race is in Arizona, where the candidates are evenly matched. However, Harris enjoys a statistically significant 8-point lead in Wisconsin, accordin to wsj subscription.

Economic Trust and Voter Perceptions

Despite ongoing economic challenges, swing-state voters have shown a shift in trust. A majority still feel they were better off under Trump, but by a 7-point margin, they now trust Harris more than Trump to support the middle class. Harris has narrowed Trump’s advantage on several economic issues, including housing costs, government benefits, pay raises, and personal debt. She has cut Trump’s lead on the cost of everyday goods by 11 points, though Trump still maintains greater trust regarding gas prices and stock market performance.

Abortion and Social Issues

Abortion is pivotal for Harris supporters, with nearly three-quarters of swing-state Democrats deeming it “very important.” Harris leads Trump on this issue, with 55% of swing-state voters trusting her compared to 34% for Trump. Harris has leveraged her convention to reclaim concepts like freedom and patriotism for Democrats. This strategy has resulted in a 5-point margin over Trump on personal freedom issues. Harris’s approach has strengthened her position on these key issues among voters.

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Campaign Dynamics and Media Coverage

Presidential candidates usually see a boost from their conventions, but this summer’s unusual events disrupted traditional campaign patterns. The earliest-ever presidential debate in June pressured Biden into withdrawal, affecting his campaign. Trump, having survived an assassination attempt, enjoyed his largest lead in national polls before Harris entered the race. During her convention week, Harris raised $82 million, demonstrating significant enthusiasm. This fundraising effort highlights her strong support and record-breaking contributions.

Polls and Public Perception

Analyst Eli Yokley noted that Harris’ real boost came from her campaign launch rather than the convention itself. Democrats are optimistic, with 84% of Harris supporters expecting her victory compared to 79% of Trump voters. Trump’s campaign dismisses Harris’s positive media coverage as a temporary “honeymoon,” despite her 11-point positive “buzz score” compared to Trump’s -22.

Impact of Independent Candidates and Final Stretch

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s suspension and support for Trump have had minimal impact on the race. His support dropped from 10% to 5%, increasing undecided voters. Kamala Harris gains ground, with 30% of swing-state voters more likely to support her due to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, compared to 23% for Trump with JD Vance.

As the campaigns head into the final stretch after Labor Day, Harris will need to maintain her advantage amidst intensified attacks from Trump and his allies.

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